Naeem Chisti Crunching NA and Senate Numbers
A thoughtful number crunching by naeem chisti in the FP today - t
The question as to whether or not the new Assemblies will be able to complete their constitutional tenure of five years largely depends upon the working of the National Assembly. The people gave a split mandate for the National Assembly. Nonetheless, PMLN and ANP have already announced to support PPP in the centre. The three parties have 163 out of 262 general seats. After the allocation of seats for women and non-Muslims, the three parties are likely to have 212 out of 342 clear seats in the National Assembly which is only 62% of the total number of seats. All the three parties are trying to win independents on their sides.
Even if they are able to get two-third majority in the National Assembly with the help of the independents and other smaller parties, the fact remains that they do not have even simple majority in the upper house of the Parliament. The strength of PMLQ and MQM in the Senate is 39 and 6, respectively. Therefore, it will be a gigantic task for the three-partite coalition comprising PPP, PMLN and ANP to get even a simple majority in the Senate, unless they are able to bring some PMLQ senators on their side. Formation of a like-minded senators group in the Senate led by Nilofar Bakhtiar is a good beginning towards the end. Nonetheless, the balance of power in the Senate at present clearly lies in the hands of MMA as it has 18 seats in the Senate. Therefore, if PPP forms government in the centre, which is almost certain, it must join hands with Maulana Fazlur Rehman.
The question as to whether or not the new Assemblies will be able to complete their constitutional tenure of five years largely depends upon the working of the National Assembly. The people gave a split mandate for the National Assembly. Nonetheless, PMLN and ANP have already announced to support PPP in the centre. The three parties have 163 out of 262 general seats. After the allocation of seats for women and non-Muslims, the three parties are likely to have 212 out of 342 clear seats in the National Assembly which is only 62% of the total number of seats. All the three parties are trying to win independents on their sides.
Even if they are able to get two-third majority in the National Assembly with the help of the independents and other smaller parties, the fact remains that they do not have even simple majority in the upper house of the Parliament. The strength of PMLQ and MQM in the Senate is 39 and 6, respectively. Therefore, it will be a gigantic task for the three-partite coalition comprising PPP, PMLN and ANP to get even a simple majority in the Senate, unless they are able to bring some PMLQ senators on their side. Formation of a like-minded senators group in the Senate led by Nilofar Bakhtiar is a good beginning towards the end. Nonetheless, the balance of power in the Senate at present clearly lies in the hands of MMA as it has 18 seats in the Senate. Therefore, if PPP forms government in the centre, which is almost certain, it must join hands with Maulana Fazlur Rehman.
posted by temporal at 2/27/2008
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