Karachi: the final frontier? —Rafia Zakaria

As the temperature of the Taliban insurgency rises, all eyes are focused on Karachi as the final venue of the face-off between the Tehreek-e Taliban Pakistan and its opponents. In the political developments of the past few weeks, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement has emerged as the sole political adversary to the TTP’s project of forcing the nation to accede to its demands.

The eruption of ethnically motivated violence in Karachi has been forecast for some time by both political leaders and strategic analysts. MQM leader Altaf Hussain has been rallying Karachiites to mobilise against the Talibanisation of the city for over a year. Last week’s burning of Catholic churches and targeting of the Christian community in Tiasar Town was a precursor to the current tension in the city.

Analysts have correctly emphasised the value of destabilising Karachi for the TTP in its ultimate project of expelling foreign troops from Afghanistan. As one report put it, NATO supply lines rely crucially on the Karachi port. Put simply, destabilising the port operations in Karachi is an easy recipe for disabling the American-led NATO effort in Afghanistan.

The residents of Karachi are entrepreneurial, highly educated and without the feudal connections and conservatism that typify other parts of Pakistan. This makes them most likely to suffer in the event of a pro-Islamist Taliban regime that forces women indoors, shuts down businesses arbitrarily deemed un-Islamic and extracts taxes from minorities. While these factors could effectively mobilise Karachi’s eighteen million residents against the threat of the Taliban, the degeneration of this struggle into ethnic war risks providing the Taliban with a decisive victory regardless of whether they can actually win the war over Karachi.

Karachi: the final frontier? —Rafia Zakaria