The McCain Postmortems Have Started

The president of the country was massively unpopular. His party was hammered by scandals. The economy was bad, unemployment was rising and polls showed worrying levels of public pessimism.

The nation’s left-wing opposition party had united behind a charismatic and appealing challenger: the first major party nominee to be something other than the usual white male.

Really, the whole thing seemed hopeless.

America 2008? No — France 2007.

Nicolas Sarkozy’s triumph over Ségolène Royal provided John McCain with a clear, easy-to-follow template for party renewal.

Like George W. Bush, incumbent French president Jacques Chirac was massively unpopular. Like John McCain, Nicolas Sarkozy belonged to Chirac’s party. Like John McCain again, Sarkozy had repeatedly tangled with Chirac during their years in government.

Unlike John McCain, Sarkozy used his record to present himself as the real force for change in France. Sarkozy achieved this in two ways:

* First, he presented a clear and simple analysis of what was wrong with France — and plausible solutions to the problems he diagnosed. According to Sarkozy, the French economy suffered because it punished work. He proposed a package of relevant reforms, most notably a cut in the payroll tax for all work beyond the 35-hour legislated maximum.

* Second, in direct debates with his opponent, he proved himself more knowledgeable and more thoughtful about the issues worrying the French — including issues deemed taboo by the French establishment, such as crime and immigration.