Pakistan at the mercy of marching lawyers - Syed Saleem Shahzad

Saleem Shahzad whom you can read at Asia Times usually contributes well researched articles with facts cross checked. He also tries to be non-partison. Here are some sobering thoughts on the lawyer's march and the taliban waitng in the wings to unleash their agenda:


KARACHI - Pakistan is engulfed in its own version of the Long March, and just as that pivotal event changed the face of China in the mid-1930s, Pakistan's political landscape could be significantly altered, as could that of its neighbor Afghanistan. Thousands of black-suited lawyers gathered in Karachi on Monday for the beginning of a country-wide protest that is scheduled to finish outside parliament in the capital Islamabad on Thursday. The protests began as a move to have more than 40 members of the judiciary, sacked by President Pervez Musharraf last year, reinstated, but have evolved into a direct challenge to Musharraf's position and into antagonism towards his backer, the United States. The driving force behind the protests is the country's premier Islamic party, the Jamaat-e-Islami, and the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz group)of former premier Nawaz Sharif.

At the same time, the stage is set for militants to exploit the political uncertainty through targeted attacks, even though they have signed a number of peace agreements with the government. The ramifications of a deteriorating security situation and political turmoil are serious for Pakistan, which acts as a hub in the "war on terror" for both the Taliban-led forces in Afghanistan and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces opposing them. The bottom line for the protests is to rid the country of all American assets, including Musharraf, the liberal and secular government headed by the Pakistan People's Party-led (PPP)coalition, and the Chief of Army Ataff, General Ashfaq Parvez Kiani.

An embodiment of the protest movement can be found in retired Lieutenant-General Jamshed Gulzar Kiyani, a former Corps Commander in Rawalpindi, once comrade of Musharraf and a known anti-American officer. Even before September 11, 2002, he was opposed to efforts to capture al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden (see Osama bin Laden: The thorn in Pakistan's flesh Asia Times Online, August 22, 2001) and he was subsequently sidelined on American demand. He has summed up the reasons for the anti-Musharraf move as complicity by Musharraf in the "war on terror"; his handing over of Muslims to the US in exchange for dollars; for orchestrating the massacre at the radical Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) in Islamabad last year; the detention of the father of Pakistan's nuclear weapons program, Abdul Qadeer Khan, on accusations he masterminded Pakistan's nuclear proliferation; the misadventure of the Kargil operation in 1999, when Pakistan moved into Indian territory; and taking the country into the American camp.

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(this is referred passage from the Aug 2001 link - note the absence of "kiyani" in the name-t)
In Pakistan, there is also a very strong lobby within the army not to assist in any US moves to apprehend bin Laden. These include Rawalpindi Corps Commander Lieutenant-General Jamshed Gulzar, one of the coup leaders of October 12, 1999, Lahore Corps Commander Lieutenant-General Aziz Khan and Deputy Chief of Army Staff Lieutenant-General Muzzaffar Usmani. This was the strong army backing that enabled a Pakistani religious scholar, Mufti Nizamuddin Shamzai, who is well respected among the Taliban leadership, to put pressure on Pakistan's Minister of the Interior, a retired lieutenant-general, Moinuddin Haider, not to deport any more Arabs from Pakistan. Syed Saleem Shahzad - Asia Times - Aug 22, 2001

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Militants see their chanceWith Pakistan mired in a massive power and economic crisis, al-Qaeda sees its opportunity to destabilize the country through militancy. This accounts for the recent spate of al-Qaeda-backed violence, notably the suicide car bomb attack on the Danish Embassy in Islamabad this month that killed at least eight people. The garrison town of Rawalpindi - Islamabad's twin city - is expected to come under attack. And the violence is likely to spread in tandem with the lawyers' movement in the coming days. Indeed, on Monday, at the start of the protest march, militants attacked a police convoy in North-West Frontier Province (NWFP). The convoy was guarding the recently released Sufi Muhammad, the leader of a pro-Taliban group. A Taliban spokesman confirmed they had carried out the attack against the police. The Taliban's peace treaties are now just pieces of paper.

The Afghan front will heat up even further as NATO can be expected to strike back hard against the Taliban. NATO wants to place the Taliban between a rock and a hard place, that is, between NATO troops on the Afghan side and Pakistani forces on the other. In the past few weeks, top American military commanders have visited Islamabad to discuss this strategy with army chief Kiani. The Taliban will counter this by spreading their troops and seeking engagement on many fronts - they have opened up an unlikely front in eastern Nangarhar province. And for al-Qaeda, Rawalpindi, the military headquarters, and neighboring Islamabad, the federal capital, are the "choke points" to strangle Pakistan's cooperation in the "war on terror" through selective suicide attacks. This will blunt one side of the pincer movement against the Taliban as well as encourage Islamic-minded officers in the military to assert their anti-American views.

The lawyer-led protests will provide al-Qaeda with the perfect opportunity to strike, further raising the political and security temperature in the already simmering country. Economic woes add to this potent brew. A deepening power crisis could end in riots in the southern port city of Karachi. The Pakistani rupee is at its lowest against the US dollar in the history of the country and the Karachi Stock Exchange is at its lowest in nine months. Pakistan's march is indeed going to be a long and arduous one.