Will Obama Solve the Middle East -- All at Once?

One straw in the wind is a remarkably candid interview by King Abdullah of Jordan given to Richard Beeston of The Times (of London) on May 11, in which the King suggests just that - that the US is aiming not for piecemeal progress separately with the Palestinians, Lebanese, Syrians etc, but at a "global solution" - or, in his words, not a 2-state solution (ie a state for Israel and the Palestinians) but a 57-state solution - ie all the Arab states, and others, who today do not recognise Israel, at last recognising and accepting Israel's existence.

What would such a deal look like? Something not a million miles from the Arab peace initiative, first proposed in 2002. Its rough outlines might comprise:

Palestine - two states defined (more or less) by the 1967 borders; some land swaps may be necessary to compensate for settlements that may remain in the West Bank; some kind of shared sovereignty over East Jerusalem but with some kind of international element too, acknowledging Jerusalem's unique importance to three world religions; return of some Palestinian refugees, but compensation for the others;

Lebanon - recommitment by Lebanon (including Hezbollah) to acceptance of Israel's complete withdrawal in 2000; guaranteed demilitarization of southern Lebanon;

Syria - Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights; perhaps some interim international presence on the Heights and permanent demilitarization; Syrian sovereignty on the Heights restored but perhaps with a permanent unoccupied margin around the Sea of Galilee (or Lake Kinneret); some sharing of water rights;

On the basis of the above, recognition by the Arab world of Israel, signed and sealed by some historic treaty, endorsed by the UN, and signed by the whole world (or at least most of it).
Achieving this supremely-ambitious result would require, at a minimum, three things. First, highly-energetic international diplomacy, led by the US, the only country that has the ability, political firepower and the credibility even to begin to attempt to persuade Israel to accept it. Secondly, it will require a long-term and sustained international military involvement to provide credible security to guarantee all the above, in Palestine, southern Lebanon and the Golan Heights. Credible to the Israelis may mean American. Finally, all of this would have to be lubricated by vast amounts of international aid money (this is where the Europeans will be called upon, as before), not least to provide a lot of money to compensate the Palestinians who will not be granted the "right of return" to their homes within Israel's post-settlement boundaries and to fund the establishment, at last, of a proper sovereign and economically-independent Palestinian state.