Russia has 'Chechnya' ploy for Afghanistan By Dmitry Shlapentokh

Dmitry Rogozin, Russia's representative at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), emphasized this point in a recent interview in which he said that the US's defeat in Afghanistan would be "a great catastrophe for Russia" as Islamists would immediately spread across Central Asia and the Caucasus. He added that the US presence in Afghanistan was in Russia's best interests, implying that the best outcome was if the US stayed there indefinitely. ...

Russia is clearly a long way from building a force of any note, if at all, and Moscow, acutely aware of this, has another plan, which is drawn from the template adopted successfully in Chechnya.

This involves establishing a sphere of influence in northern Afghanistan, where the major ethnic groups are Uzbeks and Tajiks, unlike the Pashtuns that dominate other parts of the country and which support the Taliban. Under the Northern Alliance led by the legendary Ahmad Shah Massoud, a pocket in the north held out against the Taliban during its years in power from 1996-2001.

In Chechnya, Moscow tamed nationalist Chechens by dishing out considerable largesse to President Ramzan Kadyrov. This included not only money but a huge mosque erected in the capital Grozny. The resistance was steadily incorporated into Kaydrov's forces; and Akhmed Zakaev, the leader of the virtual Chechen government in exile, has even implied he might return.