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Friday, March 20, 2009

Diane Francis on (US) Dollar Devaluation

Lots of opinions are out there, but here are a few of the more thoughtful ideas as to what the future holds:
-- Gold is the safety play as the US dollar slides. Some estimate may reach as high as US$1,500 an ounce in 2009.
-- AIG and the others should be, and will be, put into a de facto, strict bankruptcy workout. Outrage over the process thus far will lead to renegotiation of salaries and counterparty payments to stop the ad hoc and cronyist nature of this and indirect bailouts.
-- China is concerned about the fact it holds US$1 trillion of the U.S. debt and is diversifying its portfolio as well as not buying more U.S. Treasuries. Neither will the Saudis.
-- Obama will replace Geithner, preferably with a European or Canadian or Asian team, who get it and haven't got conflicts of interest with all the "boys" on Wall Street and banking.
-- The American, and most of the world's, banking system may eventually have to be nationalized in order to systemically and fairly recalibrate the financial economy.

This will also allow the Americans to write off 25% of all mortgages, sub-prime and others, to kick start the real economy again.

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