Two Iraqs - Mayhem, Violence and Democracy

I wonder to what degree these two Iraq views have contributed to the making of the other... the human costs and sacrifices...and is it leading to the end of morass and darkness? Is there a co-relation between mayhem and violence and democracy? ~~t

The mortality caused by the war is also high. Several household surveys were conducted between 2004 and 2007. While there are differences among them, the range suggests a congruence of estimates. But none have been conducted for eighteen months, and the two most reliable surveys were completed in mid-2006. The higher of those found 650,000 "excess deaths" (mortality attributable to war); the other yielded 400,000. The war remained ferocious for twelve to fifteen months after those surveys were finished and then began to subside. Iraq Body Count, a London NGO that uses English-language press reports from Iraq to count civilian deaths, provides a means to update the 2006 estimates. While it is known to be an undercount, because press reports are incomplete and Baghdad-centric, IBC nonetheless provides useful trends, which are striking. Its estimates are nearing 100,000, more than double its June 2006 figure of 45,000. (It does not count nonviolent excess deaths -- from health emergencies, for example -- or insurgent deaths.) If this is an acceptable marker, a plausible estimate of total deaths can be calculated by doubling the totals of the 2006 household surveys, which used a much more reliable and sophisticated method for estimates that draws on long experience in epidemiology. So we have, at present, between 800,000 and 1.3 million "excess deaths" as we approach the six-year anniversary of this war.

This gruesome figure makes sense when reading of claims by Iraqi officials that there are 1-2 million war widows and 5 million orphans. This constitutes direct empirical evidence of total excess mortality and indirect, though confirming, evidence of the displaced and the bereaved and of general insecurity. The overall figures are stunning: 4.5 million displaced, 1-2 million widows, 5 million orphans, about 1 million dead -- in one way or another, affecting nearly one in two Iraqis. Iraq's Shocking Human Toll: About 1 Million Killed, 4.5 Million Displaced, 1-2 Million Widows, 5 Million Orphans By John Tirman,

***

After strong polling for the provincial elections Saturday, Iraqis are looking out for new signposts of political recovery from the U.S.-led invasion and occupation. Polling picked up after a slow start Saturday in the 14 provinces of Iraq that are voting after the 2005 poll. The four provinces that did not vote are in the Kurdish controlled north. Polls were not ordered here mostly due to the controversy over control of the oil- rich Kirkuk region. Kirkuk, along with Dahuk, Arbil and Sulaymaniyah will hold elections later.

Both provincial and legislative elections were last held Jan. 30, 2005. The focus in that election was on election to the 275-member Iraqi National Assembly. The next national assembly elections are scheduled late 2009 or early 2010.

Most Sunni Muslims boycotted the 2005 election in the face of persecution and violence at the hands of the U.S. forces and Shia militias. Sunnis currently have a disproportionately small representation on provincial councils also because of the 2005 boycott. The provincial councils have powers to make laws and allocate funds for finance and reconstruction projects within the province. Provincial governors can also appoint and dismiss provincial police chiefs and senior security officials in the governorate. The last provincial elections in 2005 led to increasing power struggles, sectarianism, and greater fragmentation of the country. This time there is some hope they will bring stability. What Will Iraq's Provincial Elections Mean for the Country? By Dahr Jamail