Mumbai after-shocks rattle Pakistan By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - Ten young men from the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LET) were sent on a "sacrificial" mission to Nine of them were killed - as they were expected to be - in battles with Indian security forces during their three-day rampage last week.
What did not go according to plan was the capture of 21-year-old Ajmal Amir Kesab, who has given details of the militants' plot that was hatched by elements of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and the LET, including the training of the mission's members at PNS Iqbal (a naval commando unit in Karachi) and at Mangla Dam near the capital Islamabad. This single arrest has played very badly with the separate plans of Pakistan's strategic quarters, the LET and al-Qaeda. And beyond the escalating tensions between India and Pakistan, the crucial question now arises: Will Pakistan succumb to Washington's pressure to meaningfully clamp down on the LET - it is already banned - and the ISI forward section officers whose collusion resulted the Mumbai saga?
ATol earlier outlined how a low-level ISI forward section head (a major) allowed what was a plan to attack Kashmir in India to be turned into the Mumbai assault. See Al-Qaeda 'hijack' led to Mumbai attack December 2.) Ironically, it was as a result of US pressure that changes were made at the top levels of the ISI, resulting in the situation in which the major was able to make his fateful decision, seemingly without the knowledge of his superiors.
Washington's pressure now puts the Pakistani military on the spot, and it will be a real test for new Chief of Army Staff, General Ashfaq Parvez Kiani, and the army's relationship with militants.
***
In this anarchic situation, the Jamaatut Dawa (LET), with its well-defined vertical command structure under the single command of Saeed, could commit its several thousand members, virtually a para-military force, to the cause of the anti-state al-Qaeda-linked Pakistani militants.
What has stopped the anti-India orientated group from doing this is its under-riding loyalty to and support from Pakistan. If the authorities start to mess with the LET, beyond the routine rhetoric, all hell could break loose inside the country.
Similarly, if pressure is placed on the ISI, there could be a severe reaction from the more hardline elements in that organization, as well as in the military.
To date, the authorities have not given any indication of their plans. If they do indeed resist the overtures of Mullen and Rice, it is most likely that the Pakistani armed forces will withdraw from the Swat Valley and Bajaur Agency, leaving that area open for the Taliban-led insurgency n Afghanistan. Militants can also be expected to launch further attacks on India, with dire consequences for whole South Asia region.
What did not go according to plan was the capture of 21-year-old Ajmal Amir Kesab, who has given details of the militants' plot that was hatched by elements of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and the LET, including the training of the mission's members at PNS Iqbal (a naval commando unit in Karachi) and at Mangla Dam near the capital Islamabad. This single arrest has played very badly with the separate plans of Pakistan's strategic quarters, the LET and al-Qaeda. And beyond the escalating tensions between India and Pakistan, the crucial question now arises: Will Pakistan succumb to Washington's pressure to meaningfully clamp down on the LET - it is already banned - and the ISI forward section officers whose collusion resulted the Mumbai saga?
ATol earlier outlined how a low-level ISI forward section head (a major) allowed what was a plan to attack Kashmir in India to be turned into the Mumbai assault. See Al-Qaeda 'hijack' led to Mumbai attack December 2.) Ironically, it was as a result of US pressure that changes were made at the top levels of the ISI, resulting in the situation in which the major was able to make his fateful decision, seemingly without the knowledge of his superiors.
Washington's pressure now puts the Pakistani military on the spot, and it will be a real test for new Chief of Army Staff, General Ashfaq Parvez Kiani, and the army's relationship with militants.
***
In this anarchic situation, the Jamaatut Dawa (LET), with its well-defined vertical command structure under the single command of Saeed, could commit its several thousand members, virtually a para-military force, to the cause of the anti-state al-Qaeda-linked Pakistani militants.
What has stopped the anti-India orientated group from doing this is its under-riding loyalty to and support from Pakistan. If the authorities start to mess with the LET, beyond the routine rhetoric, all hell could break loose inside the country.
Similarly, if pressure is placed on the ISI, there could be a severe reaction from the more hardline elements in that organization, as well as in the military.
To date, the authorities have not given any indication of their plans. If they do indeed resist the overtures of Mullen and Rice, it is most likely that the Pakistani armed forces will withdraw from the Swat Valley and Bajaur Agency, leaving that area open for the Taliban-led insurgency n Afghanistan. Militants can also be expected to launch further attacks on India, with dire consequences for whole South Asia region.
posted by temporal at 12/05/2008
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