Breathing Space for Democracy
The democratic forces have a brief breathing space in Pakistan because the Army is stretched and preoccupied fighting the militants as is evident from this report by SSS. That said, what with internecine politicking, bickering and consolidating their own power bases - the politicians of all stripes are too busy fighting off within their party and with each other - and may not be able to use this breathing space heavens afforded them. And you know what that means ~ t
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The militants occupy about 80% of the strategically vital area near the border with Afghanistan and have managed to choke most supply lines. General Headquarters in Rawalpindi realizes that should the more than 10,000 troops there not be pulled out, they will face a dire war of attrition, but if they leave, the militants will gain strength.
Kabal and Kanju are the only war theatres left in the valley with battles raging and with the military in partial control, but come winter, its supply lines will be compromised. The militants are able to sustain themselves, partially as a result of having captured numerous army supply trucks and containers.
The dilemma for the army is that if it does retreat under the guise of a peace treaty, it will allow the Taliban to strengthen its bases even further in preparation for the next offensive in Afghanistan in the spring. The anticipation is that the Taliban will receive an unprecedented boost in recruits.
As in the Bajaur Agency, the army has failed in the Swat Valley as the troops are mostly ethnic Pashtun, as are the people against whom they are fighting. As a result, there has been an over-reliance on air power, which only serves to drive the militants temporarily into the mountains or into Afghanistan.
It's going to be a very long winter for the Pakistani army, whether it stays in the tribal areas or whether it retreats, while next spring could be the hottest ever in Afghanistan.
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The militants occupy about 80% of the strategically vital area near the border with Afghanistan and have managed to choke most supply lines. General Headquarters in Rawalpindi realizes that should the more than 10,000 troops there not be pulled out, they will face a dire war of attrition, but if they leave, the militants will gain strength.
Kabal and Kanju are the only war theatres left in the valley with battles raging and with the military in partial control, but come winter, its supply lines will be compromised. The militants are able to sustain themselves, partially as a result of having captured numerous army supply trucks and containers.
The dilemma for the army is that if it does retreat under the guise of a peace treaty, it will allow the Taliban to strengthen its bases even further in preparation for the next offensive in Afghanistan in the spring. The anticipation is that the Taliban will receive an unprecedented boost in recruits.
As in the Bajaur Agency, the army has failed in the Swat Valley as the troops are mostly ethnic Pashtun, as are the people against whom they are fighting. As a result, there has been an over-reliance on air power, which only serves to drive the militants temporarily into the mountains or into Afghanistan.
It's going to be a very long winter for the Pakistani army, whether it stays in the tribal areas or whether it retreats, while next spring could be the hottest ever in Afghanistan.
posted by temporal at 11/15/2008
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