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Friday, May 22, 2009

Clean Energy Bill Survives: Political Realists Rejoice, Climate Science Realists Demand More

NOTE: Unexpectedly, Rep. Bono Mack (R-CA) voted "yes" -- and the bill passed 33-25! She later said, “"While I still have significant concerns about this bill, particularly with regard to its cost and its failure to recognize innovative technologies like advanced nuclear energy, I believe this is the right direction for our district, for our nation and for our future.”

UPDATE: Al Gore's statement is at the end. The New York Times labels Waxman-Markey "the most ambitious energy and global warming legislation ever debated in Congress."

Every journey of a 1000 miles begins with a single step -- including stopping human-caused global warming at "safe levels," as close as possible to 2°C. Many people have asked me how I can reconcile my climate science realism, which demands far stronger action than the Waxman-Markey bill requires, and my climate politics realism, which has led me to strongly advocate passage of this flawed bill.

The short answer is that Waxman-Markey is the only game in town. If it fails, I see no chance whatsoever of stabilizing anywhere near 350 to 450 ppm since serious U.S. action would certainly be off the table for years, the effort to jumpstart the clean energy economy in this country would stall, the international negotiating process would fall apart, and any chance of a deal with China would be dead. Warming of 5°C or more by century's end would be all but inevitable, with 850 to 1000+ ppm. If Waxman-Markey becomes law, then I see a genuine 10% to 20% chance of averting catastrophe -- not high, but not zero.


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